· Defence secretary seeks debate on ageing Trident
· Decision on replacement likely in next two years
Patrick Wintour and Martin Kettle
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The following correction was printed in the Guardian's Corrections and clarifications column, Thursday September 15 2005
The article below seems to attribute to the defence secretary John Reid a decision which his department points out he has not made and for which there is no support in the actual text. He is opening debate on the subject, not closing it.
The following correction was printed in the Guardian's Corrections and clarifications column, Wednesday September 14 2005
In the article below we referred to Polaris as "the current deterrent". We meant to say Trident.
Defence secretary John Reid today opens a national debate about replacing Britain's independent nuclear deterrent, saying he believes Britain faces a long-term external nuclear threat and may have to plan on that basis.
In an interview with the Guardian, he gives the first indication of government thinking in what promises to be one of the most controversial decisions of this parliament. The decision has to be taken in this parliament and, according to some experts, possibly in the next two years.
Mr Reid promises an open debate in the country, parliamentary party and parliament on any Trident alternative.
Asked if Britain would face a nuclear enemy in 15 years, the date at which Polaris, the current deterrent, is likely to be obsolete, he replied: "The decision is never an easy one, and I think recent history teaches us it is impossible in most cases to predict where your enemy will come from. Nobody, or very few, foresaw the invasion of the Falklands or that Saddam would invade Kuwait, and I could go through any number of other examples. So to say whether we might have a nuclear enemy in 15 years' time is a difficult question to answer, other than to say history probably suggests we will".
He added while Britain had already done everything to minimise its nuclear deterrent, "it is the case that others have been trying to develop and in some cases have developed their nuclear weapons". He cited North Korea, Pakistan and India, adding evidence existed Saddam had been heading in same direction.
He cautioned against the view that "just because new threat of international terrorism has arisen the old threats will necessarily go. They may change". He added: "My track record and that of the government on nuclear weapons - maintaining while ensuring it is the minimum - is one for all to see, as well as being a good one."
Any new deterrent would not breach the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and would not necessarily represent an increase in the size of the deterrent.
Promising a full debate, he said: "It is not only a good thing that there will be such a discussion, it is an inevitable thing. We are not going to have a secret Chevaline-like decision taken by some of the cabinet which then proceeds without any public discussion or debate. Even if that was desirable, and it is not, it is not possible.
"It is a matter of political practicality. In the course of the next four years this decision will take place. It will inevitably be more public than such decisions in the past."
The Wilson government in 1974 extended Polaris with the Chevaline programme, only informing a small cabinet group.
Mr Reid said he had given no detailed consideration to whether MPs should be given a vote. But he added: "People are not stupid. They can always find ways - fox-hunting was put to a vote in the PLP, so people will find ways of doing things."
Faced by accusations that he has secretly made the decision to spend up to £20bn on the replacement, he insisted: "It is not a decision about which I have received any advice, papers, options or made any decisions." He warned that regardless of any decision, spending would have to be tightened, with greater European coordination on procurement.
Mr Reid also prepared Britain for an increase in the size and risks of deployment in Afghanistan next May, including a possible merger between the Nato force and US counter-terrorism forces in Operation Enduring Freedom.
Britain will take over leadership of the Nato mission for a year and extend its presence in the southern Helmat province, one of the areas of illegal poppy cultivation. He said a larger commitment in Afghanistan was compatible with a continued presence in Iraq, but he expected British troops to start withdrawing from Iraq within 12 months.
The deterrent
· The Trident D-5 is a solid propellant submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM) developed by the US in the late 1960s.
· It is 13.42 metres (44ft) long and has a diameter of 2.11 metres (7ft). It has a maximum range of 7,500 miles.
· UK Tridents are deployed in the four Vanguard-class ballistic missile nuclear-powered submarines.
· The Trident can carry up to 12 warheads but the D-5 version carries up to four. In 1999, it was announced that each Vanguard submarine would carry a maximum of 48 warheads.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2005/sep/13/nuclear.foreignpolicy/print
