Source:
http://www.rusi.org
Royal United Services Institute
Future Defence Review
Working Paper Number 5
Malcolm Chalmers
'If the government that comes to power in 2010 were to accept the case for long-term budget guidelines, the MoD might reasonably hope to share the fruits of post-adjustment economic growth. The exact assumption made will be the subject of political debate. On the assumption that the government deficit can be reduced to manageable proportions by 2016, however, real growth of around 1 per cent per annum between 2016/17 and 2019/20 might be a plausible planning assumption for the core defence budget. This would allow the MoD to maintain non-Trident core spending in real terms, while also allowing the government to state that nucleardeterrent capital spending is not at the expense of conventional forces.34 It would be roughly comparable to growth in core defence spending during 1998-2008, more generous than Canada but less generous than Australia. It would be broadly consistent, albeit rather more generous, than historic patterns of UK defencespending, if one excludes the post-Cold War adjustment period.'
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